Tuesday, October 09, 2007

The Ultimate in Personalized Medicine and (For Now) Hype

by Michael Shulman
BiotechBlitz



For many people in medicine, the Holy Grail is the card or chip carried by a patient with the person's genetic code. That code would tell them what drugs and other treatments would work best for a specific illness. This vision is driving long-term plans for many companies and, unfortunately, these companies are beginning to ask investors for money.

Stay away.

The hypesters are being led by one who's very experienced named Craig Venter -- the self-proclaimed decoder of the human genome, sort of. This year this modest, unassuming fellow published a complete genetic blueprint on the Internet of himself that he said cost $60 million. Makes the Bionic Woman look cheap. He did say it could be done again for a fraction of the cost, maybe $300 grand. And once people can walk around with their genes in their jeans, miracle cures are around the corner.

At the recent UBS Global Life Sciences conference, industry equipment leaders (guys who make money selling stuff to guys like Venter) said the price of coding or decoding one person's DNA is going to fall to $10,000 bucks. At that price, it may become more common for patients to have their genes sequenced for medical tests.

This probably will happen, but who will make money with the results? Oh, you think because we sequence a gene, our gene, we have all the answers? Sorry, but the arrogance of sciences and scientific language comes into play here.

When Venter and company say they mapped his gene, they are leaving out something called junk DNA. Did you know that when researchers say they decode a human gene, they throw our something called "junk DNA?" This constitutes maybe 80%-90% of the material involved in gene expression and contributes, in an unknown way, to the impact of genes on human health. A good definition of junk DNA can be found in Wikipedia -- junk DNA is a label for that part of the DNA component of a chromosome or genome that sicentisits have yet to define a function. Some think junk DNA is akin to the appendix -- it serves no purpose. As a father of identical twins with the same DNA, trust me, something makes them different other than the environment.

For the foreseeable future, no companies with cures are doing the decoding, just the firms making the equipment. Two at the forefront of the market for providing incredibly high-tech equipment to genomic researchers are Illumina (ILMN) and Applera (ABI). They are going to make a lot of dough, not just because genetic research is hot but because it is still primitive and in its earliest stages.

We are in the very-early stages of a genomic equipment boom and you should look at the equipment guys, avoid the hype about cures right around the corner. That being said, if you are interested in the super-speculative, itty-bitty biotechs -- some of them who might be in this area or now or in the future -- check out at Baby Biotechs.



BiotechBlitz is a regular contributor to BioHealth Investor
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