Vertex Earnings This Week; Will We Be Encouraged!?
by Atlas BioResearch
In March 2007, we reported on Hepatitis C drugs and focused on Vertex (VRTX) which has a drug approaching entry into Phase III trials. We cautioned that this will be fragmented field and returns will not be as high as investors are expecting and additionally the data did not appear as robust as hoped. Since that time VRTX has traded in a narrow range and is currently approximately the same as it was in March.
VRTX will announce results on July 24, 2007 and although VRTX is not included in our medium cap portfolio we follow the story due to its focus on antivirals which we believe is becoming a more interesting investment area than it has been. Since March the company has published additional results of the Phase IIb trial. Although a small number of patients were in the final 12 week study results; over 60% of the patients showed "complete" reduction in viral load. The company is using this as a proof of principle so were happy with the results. A high number of patients pulled out of the treatment which gives us some concern about the extrapolation of these results to final Phase III and its eventual success. A reflection of this uncertainty on the part of the investment community is the performance of the stock over this period.
We still believe it is either well valued or over valued at these levels. The mid 20s is still our signal for entry into this stock.
RELATED READING:
- Vertex Options Active Ahead of Data Presentation
- Vertex vs. Schering-Plough: Hepatitis C Protease Inhibitors
- Vertex Hepititis C Candidate May Be a Success Story
_________________
In March 2007, we reported on Hepatitis C drugs and focused on Vertex (VRTX) which has a drug approaching entry into Phase III trials. We cautioned that this will be fragmented field and returns will not be as high as investors are expecting and additionally the data did not appear as robust as hoped. Since that time VRTX has traded in a narrow range and is currently approximately the same as it was in March.
VRTX will announce results on July 24, 2007 and although VRTX is not included in our medium cap portfolio we follow the story due to its focus on antivirals which we believe is becoming a more interesting investment area than it has been. Since March the company has published additional results of the Phase IIb trial. Although a small number of patients were in the final 12 week study results; over 60% of the patients showed "complete" reduction in viral load. The company is using this as a proof of principle so were happy with the results. A high number of patients pulled out of the treatment which gives us some concern about the extrapolation of these results to final Phase III and its eventual success. A reflection of this uncertainty on the part of the investment community is the performance of the stock over this period.
We still believe it is either well valued or over valued at these levels. The mid 20s is still our signal for entry into this stock.
RELATED READING:
- Vertex Options Active Ahead of Data Presentation
- Vertex vs. Schering-Plough: Hepatitis C Protease Inhibitors
- Vertex Hepititis C Candidate May Be a Success Story
_________________
posted by Nico at
5:09 PM
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