Monday, October 29, 2007

Anecdotes -- JNJ, CPHD, AMLN, DNA

by Michael Shulman
BiotechBlitz



It’s Monday and so far, the world is safe:

• The Sawx won the world series – I predicted a sweep while being interviewed on the Fox Business Channel. (DirectTV Channel 359 or check your local listings.) I'm on a few days a week for a few seconds, but it is all worthwhile -- of course, I predicted a sweep by the Rockies, not of the Rockies, so, well, I was just one preposition off.
• The Giants beat the Dolphins in London, the teams destroying the brand new field, and the Redskins lost 52-7, the Patriots destroying the team whose colors of mustard and ketchup reflect my opinion of them.
• And the government – Uncle Sam and others – are spending a bit more time worried about healthcare costs, which actually makes me feel good – not bad. I don’t own Big Pharma stocks and don’t recommend those companies that live on price increases and loosely controlled healthcare costs.

About controlling costs, some anecdotes from here and abroad:

• Britain’s National Health Service will allow use of Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ) cancer treatment Velcade with a proviso – a moneyback guarantee for those patients who do not respond. That makes sense to me and this will eventually spread to the U.S., despite lobbying by Big Pharma and biotech, alike.

If this happens, there will be lots of winners and losers and they are not what you think – and Genentech (DNA) is not a loser in this scenario.

• Senator Charles – ah, a good guy from New York, let’s call him Chuck, like his press secretary wants us to – has called for nationwide testing for the killer staph infection MRSA. While this is great politics, great headlines and also makes sense. More importantly it is a great center of cost savings for hospitals – with at least 17,000 deaths a year (maybe as many as five times that number), and billions of dollars in medical costs. A simple $36 (wholesales cost to the hospital) test offered by Cepheid (CPHD) would find patients with the disease as they enter the hospital, who could then be screened and isolated an cured easily when the infection is in its earliest stages. Again, it would save lives and billions of dollars.
• Former FDA Commissioner – a great one and a great public servant now making money as a consultant (his kids are nearing college age) – said that we cannot control healthcare costs until we control disease, with a specific focus on obesity and its cousins, diabetes and weight-related cardiac problems.

And some government officials and politicians are actually beginning to listen. Look for new obesity and diabetes control products and companies in the coming years. The only one with a real medical treatment, right now, in trials is Amylin (AMLN).

Just another non-manic Monday. I think I'm on Fox from 11-12, Monday, Wednesday and Friday this week.




BiotechBlitz is a regular contributor to BioHealth Investor
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